tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-317826122024-03-13T03:28:54.175-07:00A Market Watcher Speaks His MindStupid Observations of the US MarketMasterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.comBlogger103125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-18290805764306245382017-10-11T04:57:00.003-07:002017-10-11T04:57:46.294-07:00Oops! Time to Sell NVDAThis is a huge red flag. Cramer got us to buy his AMBA right before it tanked - made us the greater fool there..<br />
<br />
<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-unveils-next-generation-platform-172900132.html">https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-unveils-next-generation-platform-172900132.html</a><br />
<br />
When analysts start touting is when you need to sell..Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-2592083902685379232016-12-27T15:54:00.003-08:002016-12-27T15:54:25.127-08:00Crash NighSays who? Bill J O'Neill that's who -<br />
<br />
wha?<br />
<br />
Read his book - when the old dogs (like TSLA) start to bark - you pretty much know the rally has lost steam..Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-84346731256681344562016-12-18T07:01:00.000-08:002016-12-18T07:01:24.705-08:00Crash Yes, But When?Clinton, bull run - irrational exhuberance<br />
Bush comes in and market top is March of 2000<br />
Obama comes in, market makes a bottom March of 2009 and then triples<br />
So, I predict a market top in March of 2017. Watch the $BPSPX and the VIX. If VIX is low and $BPSPX is flat, better get out :)Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-74512391753326783742016-05-11T19:50:00.002-07:002016-05-11T19:50:18.915-07:00Rules for Trading SuccessDo as I say, not as I do :)<br />
<br />
From Dr. Elder, Mark Deaton, Nial, etc..<br />
<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>Good records = good traders. Track every trade - know why you entered, where on the chart, what your exit strategy was, etc..</li>
<li>Don't be emotionally affected by any one trade - winner or l. Know that you can go on tilt and make bad trades in the immediate future.</li>
<li>Control risk through position sizing - which demands you know your stop.</li>
<li>Patience, observation and discipline are the cornerstones. Sometimes the best trade is no trade. In life, there may be no decision - you have to take a decision and make it right. That's not the case with trading - it's very easy to "make a decision" one way :)</li>
<li>If you're always in the market - then you're gambling.</li>
<li>Are you bottom fishing on this entry? Bottom fishing does not work.</li>
<li>Remember HALT - no trade when you're hungry, angry, lonely or tired. Get your sleep.</li>
<li>How long do you plan to hold this position? Long => gambling.</li>
</ol>
<br />
<br />
May you live long and prosper.Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-76590597030580408272016-05-07T18:37:00.000-07:002016-05-07T18:37:24.093-07:00Think about Henkel HEN3P/E : 23<br />
40B EUR mkt cap<br />
Consolidating.<br />
Why caught my attention? Purex was selling at Wal-Mart for 50% lower than competitors. Why? No clue. They're a Dial company and Dial is owned by Henkel. In America you have to put such info on there so people know who to sue.. :)Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-67665089896693390112016-03-21T22:57:00.002-07:002016-03-21T22:57:58.028-07:00Why Not STX or WDC for Dividend Plays?ROE of STX is pretty good - which is what Joel Greenblatt touts..Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-130471695199275882016-03-21T22:46:00.000-07:002016-03-21T22:46:23.431-07:00Retire Young and RichIDTI, MPWR, CDNS<br />
<br />
Have hardly noticed the market...<br />
<br />
Truly, what's the best way to invest - given you'll be kicking yourself if your stock drops..<br />
<br />
Here's my new plan :<br />
<br />
If the stock has formed a base and not broken out yet, get a few shares - you might have to hold for years :)<br />
<br />
For good performers, use IFTTT - to be notified of drops..Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-88457669625500600872016-03-21T22:33:00.000-07:002016-03-21T22:33:32.595-07:00Ideas - NLY, NRZ, BABA, DDDMarket Edge and Gorilla Trades seem to be doing a great job of picking out winners..<div>
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<div>
AMZN is rated an avoid right now for technical reasons - so watch for a dip to get back in..</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
Why not by NLY, sell the call and reap the dividend? Seems like solid support at $9..</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
BABA is rated a buy BTW.. Market Edge and the fundamentals - Thomson Reuters, S&P,..</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
FYI, GSK is rated lowest - despite the high dividend and low PE.. Who could have guessed?</div>
Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-59478495947034432692016-03-16T23:47:00.001-07:002016-03-16T23:47:58.458-07:00You Should be Out Already. If Not... Sorry :)Old dogs (like AAPL) are starting to bark - even DDD and GRPN.<br />
<br />
VIX is going lower and lower all the time.<br />
<br />
Vision Investing and Bill J O'Neill say that's all it takes for a market top.<br />
<br />
Now's the time to take RBS' advice..<br />
<br />
Sell now!!Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-29001092563249233352016-03-04T07:31:00.003-08:002016-03-04T07:31:23.171-08:00Poised for Greatness : CRUSUltimate long term cup-with-handle.<br />
<br />
Buy!Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-51146625243824405732016-02-05T22:59:00.004-08:002016-02-05T22:59:55.344-08:00Brief Flirtation with History Proves too Much for GOOGKind of like Al Gore being president for a few seconds..<br />
<br />
For a few hours, GOOG outshone AAPL and then, like a supernova..<br />
<br />
What next? You're seeing the ^VIX break out - expect the spectacular - massive fireworks pretty soon. You should not enter any new positions for the next few months unless you know exactly what you're doing - which I certainly don't :)<br />
<br />
Plenty of money on the sidelines is the way to play this..Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-83636127973449943432016-01-22T21:13:00.001-08:002016-01-22T21:13:35.641-08:00Watch the ^VIXWhen the VIX starts to level off, you know you have a local top in the market - SELL! before the selling starts in earnest..Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-69286091483286864092016-01-04T07:16:00.002-08:002016-01-04T07:16:54.981-08:00Correction to ContinueIt's technical - if you just look at the 5 year plot, you'll see where the support is and where things will retrace to..Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-211134409279736682015-10-26T07:31:00.000-07:002015-10-26T07:31:07.934-07:00Skin in the GameOkay, what did I do and what happened?<br />
<br />
First, I'm wrong on PCLN - go ahead and buy :) It doesn't care about the market anymore :) I sold prematurely.<br />
<br />
I unloaded a chunk of DLG.F, but, if I hadn't, I'd be about $4k poorer today. Once it stabilizes at it's MA on the 5 year chart, you should be okay with owning it. NOTE, I still have a big chunk that's netted me some losses, but...Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-52168583016001505722015-10-23T08:16:00.000-07:002015-10-23T08:16:09.905-07:00Strategy, For NowSince the VIX has fallen to a low, that indicates a market top.<br />
<br />
Wait for the VIX to get back to a healthy level to signal a short-term bottom so you can get in..Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-57767283293921117712015-09-22T07:24:00.000-07:002015-09-22T07:24:03.217-07:00Don't Worry. Not the Bottom YetIf there's one thing I learnt from Vision Investing's "Profit Forecasting Code" of 2003, a top in the VIX coincides with a market bottom - so, just wait :)<br />
<br />
My buddy says a text of the S&P 1820 seem sure..Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-87466465383988569542015-03-13T08:11:00.002-07:002015-03-13T13:17:55.823-07:00Unloading Starts in EarnestWhen you see BRK-B taking a bigger hit than the broader market, that's a sure sign mate!<br />
<br />
Of course, options expiration could have something to do with it too..<br />
<br />
Anyhow, I saw a very bullish return for the indexes - so that's a worrying sign.<br />
<br />
Of course, having gotten so close to the all-time high, you can pretty much bet that the Nasdaq will get there in the next few weeks. Just a q of when.Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-54262928141174261422015-03-13T08:05:00.000-07:002015-03-13T08:05:27.369-07:00Ackman's All-Star PicksForget HLF - he made big bucks on that one. But, considering how low profile the other holdings are, maybe one should take a look at buying into the dips on those..<br />
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AGN, ZTS, APD, PAH,Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-28871272852930700842015-03-10T23:48:00.000-07:002015-03-10T23:48:24.692-07:00Watch the SHAK!Shake Shack - up on a market down (heavy down) day!<br />
<br />
Also look at VPCO - been bucking the trend as well..Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-46897074196999027602015-03-06T13:05:00.000-08:002015-03-06T13:05:05.837-08:00Bottom Fishing - the Worst Trading StrategyAnd I fell for it again - net - loss of $20..<br />
<br />
Followed the chart for a couple of hours, thought 126.6 was as low as it would go, and boy was I wrong - went all the way down to 126.2 or so - so it could have been worse.. <br />
<br />
Never, never again :)Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-72427315882169304712015-02-22T17:13:00.002-08:002015-02-22T17:13:28.917-08:00Ist Das der Toppe? Ja, APPL Muss zu $80 RetracenThe top it is - back in 2012, stock made a new high, but relative strength did not - and, guess what, went on to lose 40%. Back then there was talk of Apple TV and $1 trillion market cap.<br />
<br />
Now, we see another new high, but RS doesn't make a new high. And, there's again talk of $1T and Apple Car.<br />
<br />
So, keep your powder and then you should be able to get back in at $80.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7yMtqIGlduvzGONVbST3JaDCFlAPguuyDzRipAZSyo9Os2M7lKT3BYQtB2oX4FdURwOaJvT0VMqZNJtaj68mQQZ6okhhWsPBhUEsftqUGTmOqub_4DyIOrBbtZXwXx9Mh9bT2HQ/s1600/AAPL_top.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7yMtqIGlduvzGONVbST3JaDCFlAPguuyDzRipAZSyo9Os2M7lKT3BYQtB2oX4FdURwOaJvT0VMqZNJtaj68mQQZ6okhhWsPBhUEsftqUGTmOqub_4DyIOrBbtZXwXx9Mh9bT2HQ/s1600/AAPL_top.png" height="281" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-84582407213908377362015-02-18T14:43:00.000-08:002015-02-18T14:43:07.255-08:00AAPL : Ominous SignsForget trading - if I'd just bought AAPL at 400 2 years ago and held on, I'd doubled my investment.. Hell :)<br />
<br />
Now, some parallels to what happened then to drop the stock from 700 to 400 :<br />
<br />
Then : Apple's doing great; they might announce the Apple TV soon.<br />
Now : Apple's doing great; they might announce a car soon.<br />
<br />
Then : Apple might get to $1 trillion in market cap.<br />
Now : Apple might get to $1 trillion in market cap.Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-67951183265115893452015-01-15T07:50:00.001-08:002015-01-15T07:50:49.031-08:00Red Flag AgainI was telling people that the market might decline after the new year since people would take profits in the hope of buying back lower, or just to lock in profits and not have to think about tax implications for a bit.<br />
<br />
So it proved.<br />
<br />
Now, Ari Wald is saying AAPL can get to 140 - das ist eine grosse red flag. You hear me? Sell..Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-90681557647936401072014-09-22T21:32:00.001-07:002014-09-22T21:32:36.587-07:00Free IBD Stuff This Week at Investors.comThank you Amy Smith for getting rid of the ridiculously boring and crappy sounding Christina Wise. She tries to take a leaf out of the Brits' book..<br />
<br />
Now, IBD is up to its usual gimmicks - trying to guess what the market is doing. "Uptred Under Pressure".<br />
<br />
What are they not telling you?<br />
<br />
When was the last time we saw such a formation? And, when we last saw such formations, what did you say? Did you say the same thing you're saying now? When you said the same thing you're saying now, last time, what happened? Duh!Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31782612.post-11143353790891045082014-08-08T07:44:00.001-07:002014-08-08T07:44:21.581-07:00The End of the Bull Run : William J. O'NeillHow do you know if the market is going south?<br />
<br />
Just look at your recent purchases - if you haven't made even a dime - that's a sign.<br />
<br />
It was so good the last few months, easy money and I've given so much back in just the last 2 weeks. Phew - I'm into RYVNX now!Masterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15429251949830905484noreply@blogger.com0