Thursday, November 20, 2008

Try 7000, Or Six!

How about that - just when we thought we couldn't go any lower - we notch up a new low. And did you ever think MSFT could stare at 17? Terrific stuff. Alwadi buying more C i t i is another sign to sell. It's just a move to get him more control. In a year, once his stake has broken even, you can bet he'll jump ship. Just like a Saudi oil-pirate.

Consider, I've lost a tonne in ISRG on account of holding from the 300 days, I pull out at about 200, get back in and out with a small scalp, and now, I stare at 100. How about that? This is a wipeout crash, not a correction. Make no mistake. I'm going in for a career as a personal trainer once I get laid off. Or maybe a relaxation therapist. My fascination is with the mind, and brain.

BTW, when the downturn was starting, one of my colleagues, seeing GOOG down from its heyday of 700+, said he was expecting GOOG to come down to about 500 before it was time to buy. Try 250 mate!! This was a Korean pap by the way.

How about MT dropping from about 100+ to 15. Did Lakshmi think he'd lose 85% of his worth in a few months? Amazing stuff.

Being a semis man, I say consolidation beckons. It's irresistable. A lot of blue-chips have violated some sacred supports. When it become M&A time, that's something to watch out for in a couple years. Firms going belly-up will want to merge with stronger competitors.

And how about BRK-B down to 2620!! That one just cracks me up. I can still see Buffet's genial old look beside the proclamation that he wouldst buy US stocks. And the poor co-worker who scoffed at my suggestion to sell his holding at 5000. Well, all this is nothing new. I will quote Baruch again : "I never lost money taking a prophet."

The bright side, my buddy who has sellers-remorse over MA gets a chance to buy back - but it'll probably be a bad buy by that time - credit will not be a hot market probably. We'll be on the barter system. Work for me, I'll give you lunch and dinner. And if you're really good, maybe a blanket.

And what about BRK-A cracking 80k? It just gets better and better! Think about it - what sort of people have the money to buy that beast? Now, those are the sort of people that are panicking and selling. So much for Buffet's safe bets that will stand the test of time. Without technical analysis, you are nothing in this market dominated by traders. Anything in the world that can be bought and sold on a dime and whose absolute value is dictated solely by what buyers are willing to pay and wheter buyers outnumber sellers requires the tools of technical analysis. Ignore them and see what you get. Wise up buffet!

Seeing FAIRX beaten down, and being a mutual fund, I was thinking of getting in - and that was when it was still at 21! See, Zecco's crappy slow-loading page can have benefits!

And the other prediction realized - DELL cracks $10 to become a PENNY STOCK!

Am I afraid? Yes, if AMD goes out of business, then INTC has a true monopoly. What happens to us little people then? Ooops! And more oops - Motely Fools says "3 Reasons to buy AMD now". That means SELL!! Damn!! That's one big embarrassment.

And what about the *d from IBD who, a few weeks ago claimed - hold on, you've proved you're not a good analyst by failing to call the top, why do you think you're doing the right thing now by selling. I nominate him for the ultimate online *d award. What a freak!

Think about it, IBD should have guessed the top by themselves. Bill O'Neill's rule it to watch for old dogs starting to bark. And when did WMT hit its all-time high?

And if you thought GE was cheap at 14, you've got to think again. Damn, I was thinking of taking a HUGE position at 18 when it made its all-time low for the first-time. This is massive ladies in herren. Did you ever think this behemoth could be a penny-stock? Think again!

Watch out for Grand Canyon. Follow the IBD rule of letting it build a base.

As for me, now sellers remorse over VWO - I pulled out at 26 (Shame for not getting out at 39) and saw it dip to 19 and then rise back to 25, now it's back to 18. But, this is probably not a safe one for a couple of years. They may even have to close this fund down.

This is history. Savour it, and profit from it.

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