Skin in the Game

Okay, what did I do and what happened?

First, I'm wrong on PCLN - go ahead and buy :) It doesn't care about the market anymore :) I sold prematurely.

I unloaded a chunk of DLG.F, but, if I hadn't, I'd be about $4k poorer today. Once it stabilizes at it's MA on the 5 year chart, you should be okay with owning it. NOTE, I still have a big chunk that's netted me some losses, but...

Strategy, For Now

Since the VIX has fallen to a low, that indicates a market top.

Wait for the VIX to get back to a healthy level to signal a short-term bottom so you can get in..

Don't Worry. Not the Bottom Yet

If there's one thing I learnt from Vision Investing's "Profit Forecasting Code" of 2003, a top in the VIX coincides with a market bottom - so, just wait :)

My buddy says a text of the S&P 1820 seem sure..

Unloading Starts in Earnest

When you see BRK-B taking a bigger hit than the broader market, that's a sure sign mate!

Of course, options expiration could have something to do with it too..

Anyhow, I saw a very bullish return for the indexes - so that's a worrying sign.

Of course, having gotten so close to the all-time high, you can pretty much bet that the Nasdaq will get there in the next few weeks. Just a q of when.

Ackman's All-Star Picks

Forget HLF - he made big bucks on that one. But, considering how low profile the other holdings are, maybe one should take a look at buying into the dips on those..

AGN, ZTS, APD, PAH,

Watch the SHAK!

Shake Shack - up on a market down (heavy down) day!

Also look at VPCO - been bucking the trend as well..

Bottom Fishing - the Worst Trading Strategy

And I fell for it again - net - loss of $20..

Followed the chart for a couple of hours, thought 126.6 was as low as it would go, and boy was I wrong - went all the way down to 126.2 or so - so it could have been worse..

Never, never again :)

Ist Das der Toppe? Ja, APPL Muss zu $80 Retracen

The top it is - back in 2012, stock made a new high, but relative strength did not - and, guess what, went on to lose 40%. Back then there was talk of Apple TV and $1 trillion market cap.

Now, we see another new high, but RS doesn't make a new high. And, there's again talk of $1T and Apple Car.

So, keep your powder and then you should be able to get back in at $80.

AAPL : Ominous Signs

Forget trading - if I'd just bought AAPL at 400 2 years ago and held on, I'd doubled my investment.. Hell :)

Now, some parallels to what happened then to drop the stock from 700 to 400 :

Then : Apple's doing great; they might announce the Apple TV soon.
Now : Apple's doing great; they might announce a car soon.

Then : Apple might get to $1 trillion in market cap.
Now : Apple might get to $1 trillion in market cap.

Red Flag Again

I was telling people that the market might decline after the new year since people would take profits in the hope of buying back lower, or just to lock in profits and not have to think about tax implications for a bit.

So it proved.

Now, Ari Wald is saying AAPL can get to 140 - das ist eine grosse red flag. You hear me? Sell..