Hit Them Now

They're up, but that's the time to buy - don't feel like you've already missed out.

PCU, RIO, PBR, MT,..

Short term pullbacks on profit-taking are inevitable.

Punk from Stock Traders Press was bugging me lately. Told him I didn't have any cash on the sidelines and he says "the way the markets going right now, I'll bet there are some stocks that aren't working out for you."

My question, if you're so good at picking stocks, why don't you just make yourself rich instead of bugging people for their membership. Upgrade your member-boat to a member-ship.

GROW - The Importance of Cutting Losses

Who would have guessed:)

Got in somewhere in the low twenties. Damn!! Who would expect it of a company that's in the business of looking at other companies and picking out the good ones? But, look at BSC, or MER. Same story, more blood.

LIFC, die Spaetest Sieger

It's hard to know when to sell - unless someone makes the decision for you. Lifecell is going for $1.2b in cash. Actually picked up a few shares a few weeks back. Definitely a good market again, but... keep moving them stops up!

One thing to consider - the general market is below its 200 day MA - so I think we'll be going sideways for a while.

What Have I Learned?

If anything - once the market is in a strong uptrend and everything you touch seems to make you money - put in stops - 10% is a reasonable stop because, once the trend turns, I usually find myself holding stuff that's down 30% or more. No kidding. Yes, this means you could get hit hard in commissions if you have a lot of positions, so that's something to taking into account.

Predictions Realized

IBD second guesses as usual. Went from "confirmed" rally to correction in a matter of days. What's the use of all the seminars and courses if that's all they're good for?

ADM, POT, MON are looking good. Keep an eye on the hard hit stocks too - BRCM, etc. ESRX is worth watching. DRS, HLF also looking good.

BTW, they say the typical bear market lasts 1 year - so, in a few months:) start looking to buy.

AAPL was up today, btw.

What About That?

JOYG - up on a really down day. Looks like this one will be big.
BKE also doing well, but, buying breakout during a correction is risky. As I've been saving to pay uncle sam in April, I haven't been buying much recently. But, I'm getting tempted. The worst thing that could happen is we become a Japan - where after 20 years, stocks are still 25% down. Those things don't happen in Texas though.

SU is looking good. Not sure whether IBD have changed their tune or not. Am seriously thinking of recycling my WB holding into BAC and getting the tax break. Any thoughts on the "substantially similar" rule? I don't think IRS can have a complaint. Nofsinger was the one who gave me this idea in "The Psycho of Investing".

Crystal Ball

What I see happening - considering that IBD's changed it's tune just after 3 strong days, I guess we can expect a near term correction - about 5-6% easily, in a couple of weeks. Basically, we're going to keep moving sideways for a couple of years atleast. Institutional buying will keep moving new leaders up, but you want to protect your capital always.

Taking off. Catch it Before it's Too Late

CHK

Time.. .. Maybe?

To start getting ready to move out of cash? Wait for a dip, and then get it. IBD still has an "in correction" outlook. MO and HON are out of the Dow Feb 19. BAC and Chevron will get in.

Watch NEU - super strength - why do they wait so long to tell us? Mutual fund ownership has been stagnant though.

90% of winning stocks build their bases during a market correction.
CRM is riding it's 200 day.
What else I've noticed - solar is starting to ride it's 200 day. Just look at JASO, FSLR and STP.
And how about KWK! It's off already. Got my J2T account in the black:) You need to get one of those - a zecco account that gives you 10 free trades a month, and a J2T account you use after that to get trades at 2.50 each. And, did I mention Scottrade is the best for mutual funds? If you plan to have only mutual funds in your IRA - go with ST - they have great research available and good charts too.

What Was That?

The worst drop in a year. That's what. If you had been watching important stocks approach their 50, 100 or 200 day averages, from the bottom, you would not have been one bit surprised. There will be a somewhat biggish dip in the next couple days, and then we should move sideways for about 3 years.

Love your stock? Have spare money in your IRA or 401(k)? Then help yourself. Sell down positions in your regular brokerage and buy back in your tax-exempt accounts.

What's held up really well for me? SID. Wish I had PBR:(

Why TA is Important

Because the market today is dominated by institutional investors and TA helps you determine what they are doing.

IBD's Vote - QGEN and GMCR

Spot institutional selling before it spots you. Stock diving below 10-week in heavy volume should be enough to scare you. But, also, making new highs out of poorly formed bases.

What's Worthwhile

A lot of leaders have taken a massive drubbing. The thing about small cap is that you can expect to lose 50% in the blink of an eye. Just look at the wild rides FSLR and CMG have taken.

PTR,
CMG - buy at the 200 day moverage
PCU - after a few weeks, if it's above it's 200 day
RIO - when it hits 200 day
INTC - if you're a masochist
AMD - technical. The downward trend will continue, but I think there's a rebound imminent
ABT - biotech - but, don't expect much
ADBE - seem to double every 5 years - probably too slow for most of us
VIVO - at 200 day
CLB - at 200 day
WFR - now that's what I call a shakeout:) You'll see some serious declines. I remember buying some at 90. This will get to about 50, buy then. It'll net 5x in 5 years.
ESRX - whoops - get ready to sell this baby - probably no more buyers left
IBN
NVDA - classic technical
CVD - when it dips back to 200 day moverage
GRMN - buy, but expect dips - hold long term
RIMM - classic technical - buy at 200 day moverage
MA - buy at 200 day
IMA - you can't ask for a better one
ICLR - declines possible, but good long term bet
NGS - the long road to recovery from a climax top. Second buy point will be at 36.
STP - ready to rocket - buy at 200 day - a few weeks from now.
CMED - buy at 200 day

Note - this is what I plan to do. It's a good idea to keep atleast 2 years living expenses (and some leaving expenses:) handy if you plan to follow it. This is not for the faint-hearted.

LFC - looking very good - get at 200 day
CHL - 200 day
GOOG - 200 day. No stopping this baby
MT - buy, buy, buy
AAPL - at 200 day
HUM - at 200 day
SID - don't buy if it climaxes
BIDU - at 200 day
ISRG - a2d

Keep Them Eyes Open

LVS, AMD, MRVL all look good from an oversold point of view. But, I'm no expert.
PCU - maybe?
MER? A record low is usually a good buy point technically.
NVDA.
ABN.

Someone needs to keep track of the performance of the "record price breakouts" from clearstation!

GS is sure to hit 400 in a couple years. Seems like a safe bet too.
C looks like a nice idea, but don't expect the dividend to be so sweet.

Get Ready to Buy

EDU was up today. So also CTCM, ITG, PRSC, ATR
Too many down today to name. But, banks seem to be making record lows - so those will be good to watch - could become safe bets pretty soon.
CHK also good. Looks like I called the top on ALJ perfectly.
CME looks good according to me.
Look at JOYG!! Seems like an ideal buy point.
And KWK.

What's Looking Good?

MON, ADM, RIMM, GRMN, ..
HUM, NGS, ...

Nothing

Really, nothing.

My Mistake

I would have been easy for me to start IRAs as early as 2001. But I waited till 2005.

Monsanto - You Reap what You Sow

This could have been your home run stock.
Market was flat, this one kicked butt.
Others that did good today : FTI, STT, SYT, SPN
Down today : JTX, XTRX, SFLY, CVS, NCMI

AAPL, AMGN to bounce off 200 day

Everyone bounces off their 200 day once. So let it be with these.
CVS cleared for take off - divergence from 50 day, 200 day. Will take a couple of years to catch up. Happy harvesting!