Rules for Trading Success

Do as I say, not as I do :)

From Dr. Elder, Mark Deaton, Nial, etc..

1. Good records = good traders. Track every trade - know why you entered, where on the chart, what your exit strategy was, etc..
2. Don't be emotionally affected by any one trade - winner or l. Know that you can go on tilt and make bad trades in the immediate future.
3. Control risk through position sizing - which demands you know your stop.
4. Patience, observation and discipline are the cornerstones. Sometimes the best trade is no trade. In life, there may be no decision - you have to take a decision and make it right. That's not the case with trading - it's very easy to "make a decision" one way :)
5. If you're always in the market - then you're gambling.
6. Are you bottom fishing on this entry? Bottom fishing does not work.
7. Remember HALT - no trade when you're hungry, angry, lonely or tired. Get your sleep.
8. How long do you plan to hold this position? Long => gambling.

May you live long and prosper.

Think about Henkel HEN3

P/E : 23
40B EUR mkt cap
Consolidating.
Why caught my attention? Purex was selling at Wal-Mart for 50% lower than competitors. Why? No clue. They're a Dial company and Dial is owned by Henkel. In America you have to put such info on there so people know who to sue.. :)

Why Not STX or WDC for Dividend Plays?

ROE of STX is pretty good - which is what Joel Greenblatt touts..

Retire Young and Rich

IDTI, MPWR, CDNS

Have hardly noticed the market...

Truly, what's the best way to invest - given you'll be kicking yourself if your stock drops..

Here's my new plan :

If the stock has formed a base and not broken out yet, get a few shares - you might have to hold for years :)

For good performers, use IFTTT - to be notified of drops..

Ideas - NLY, NRZ, BABA, DDD

Market Edge and Gorilla Trades seem to be doing a great job of picking out winners..

AMZN is rated an avoid right now for technical reasons - so watch for a dip to get back in..

Why not by NLY, sell the call and reap the dividend? Seems like solid support at $9..

BABA is rated a buy BTW.. Market Edge and the fundamentals - Thomson Reuters, S&P,..

FYI, GSK is rated lowest - despite the high dividend and low PE.. Who could have guessed?

You Should be Out Already. If Not... Sorry :)

Old dogs (like AAPL) are starting to bark - even DDD and GRPN.

VIX is going lower and lower all the time.

Vision Investing and Bill J O'Neill say that's all it takes for a market top.

Now's the time to take RBS' advice..

Sell now!!

Poised for Greatness : CRUS

Ultimate long term cup-with-handle.

Buy!

Brief Flirtation with History Proves too Much for GOOG

Kind of like Al Gore being president for a few seconds..

For a few hours, GOOG outshone AAPL and then, like a supernova..

What next? You're seeing the ^VIX break out - expect the spectacular - massive fireworks pretty soon. You should not enter any new positions for the next few months unless you know exactly what you're doing - which I certainly don't :)

Plenty of money on the sidelines is the way to play this..

Watch the ^VIX

When the VIX starts to level off, you know you have a local top in the market - SELL! before the selling starts in earnest..

Correction to Continue

It's technical - if you just look at the 5 year plot, you'll see where the support is and where things will retrace to..

Skin in the Game

Okay, what did I do and what happened?

First, I'm wrong on PCLN - go ahead and buy :) It doesn't care about the market anymore :) I sold prematurely.

I unloaded a chunk of DLG.F, but, if I hadn't, I'd be about $4k poorer today. Once it stabilizes at it's MA on the 5 year chart, you should be okay with owning it. NOTE, I still have a big chunk that's netted me some losses, but...

Strategy, For Now

Since the VIX has fallen to a low, that indicates a market top.

Wait for the VIX to get back to a healthy level to signal a short-term bottom so you can get in..

Don't Worry. Not the Bottom Yet

If there's one thing I learnt from Vision Investing's "Profit Forecasting Code" of 2003, a top in the VIX coincides with a market bottom - so, just wait :)

My buddy says a text of the S&P 1820 seem sure..

Unloading Starts in Earnest

When you see BRK-B taking a bigger hit than the broader market, that's a sure sign mate!

Of course, options expiration could have something to do with it too..

Anyhow, I saw a very bullish return for the indexes - so that's a worrying sign.

Of course, having gotten so close to the all-time high, you can pretty much bet that the Nasdaq will get there in the next few weeks. Just a q of when.

Ackman's All-Star Picks

Forget HLF - he made big bucks on that one. But, considering how low profile the other holdings are, maybe one should take a look at buying into the dips on those..

AGN, ZTS, APD, PAH,

Watch the SHAK!

Shake Shack - up on a market down (heavy down) day!

Also look at VPCO - been bucking the trend as well..

Bottom Fishing - the Worst Trading Strategy

And I fell for it again - net - loss of $20..

Followed the chart for a couple of hours, thought 126.6 was as low as it would go, and boy was I wrong - went all the way down to 126.2 or so - so it could have been worse..

Never, never again :)

Ist Das der Toppe? Ja, APPL Muss zu $80 Retracen

The top it is - back in 2012, stock made a new high, but relative strength did not - and, guess what, went on to lose 40%. Back then there was talk of Apple TV and $1 trillion market cap.

Now, we see another new high, but RS doesn't make a new high. And, there's again talk of $1T and Apple Car.

So, keep your powder and then you should be able to get back in at $80.

AAPL : Ominous Signs

Forget trading - if I'd just bought AAPL at 400 2 years ago and held on, I'd doubled my investment.. Hell :)

Now, some parallels to what happened then to drop the stock from 700 to 400 :

Then : Apple's doing great; they might announce the Apple TV soon.
Now : Apple's doing great; they might announce a car soon.

Then : Apple might get to $1 trillion in market cap.
Now : Apple might get to $1 trillion in market cap.

Red Flag Again

I was telling people that the market might decline after the new year since people would take profits in the hope of buying back lower, or just to lock in profits and not have to think about tax implications for a bit.

So it proved.

Now, Ari Wald is saying AAPL can get to 140 - das ist eine grosse red flag. You hear me? Sell..