Crash Nigh

Says who? Bill J O'Neill that's who -

wha?

Read his book - when the old dogs (like TSLA) start to bark - you pretty much know the rally has lost steam..

Crash Yes, But When?

Clinton, bull run - irrational exhuberance
Bush comes in and market top is March of 2000
Obama comes in, market makes a bottom March of 2009 and then triples
So, I predict a market top in March of 2017. Watch the $BPSPX and the VIX. If VIX is low and $BPSPX is flat, better get out :)

Rules for Trading Success

Do as I say, not as I do :)

From Dr. Elder, Mark Deaton, Nial, etc..

1. Good records = good traders. Track every trade - know why you entered, where on the chart, what your exit strategy was, etc..
2. Don't be emotionally affected by any one trade - winner or l. Know that you can go on tilt and make bad trades in the immediate future.
3. Control risk through position sizing - which demands you know your stop.
4. Patience, observation and discipline are the cornerstones. Sometimes the best trade is no trade. In life, there may be no decision - you have to take a decision and make it right. That's not the case with trading - it's very easy to "make a decision" one way :)
5. If you're always in the market - then you're gambling.
6. Are you bottom fishing on this entry? Bottom fishing does not work.
7. Remember HALT - no trade when you're hungry, angry, lonely or tired. Get your sleep.
8. How long do you plan to hold this position? Long => gambling.

May you live long and prosper.

Think about Henkel HEN3

P/E : 23
40B EUR mkt cap
Consolidating.
Why caught my attention? Purex was selling at Wal-Mart for 50% lower than competitors. Why? No clue. They're a Dial company and Dial is owned by Henkel. In America you have to put such info on there so people know who to sue.. :)

Why Not STX or WDC for Dividend Plays?

ROE of STX is pretty good - which is what Joel Greenblatt touts..

Retire Young and Rich

IDTI, MPWR, CDNS

Have hardly noticed the market...

Truly, what's the best way to invest - given you'll be kicking yourself if your stock drops..

Here's my new plan :

If the stock has formed a base and not broken out yet, get a few shares - you might have to hold for years :)

For good performers, use IFTTT - to be notified of drops..

Ideas - NLY, NRZ, BABA, DDD

Market Edge and Gorilla Trades seem to be doing a great job of picking out winners..

AMZN is rated an avoid right now for technical reasons - so watch for a dip to get back in..

Why not by NLY, sell the call and reap the dividend? Seems like solid support at $9..

BABA is rated a buy BTW.. Market Edge and the fundamentals - Thomson Reuters, S&P,..

FYI, GSK is rated lowest - despite the high dividend and low PE.. Who could have guessed?

You Should be Out Already. If Not... Sorry :)

Old dogs (like AAPL) are starting to bark - even DDD and GRPN.

VIX is going lower and lower all the time.

Vision Investing and Bill J O'Neill say that's all it takes for a market top.

Now's the time to take RBS' advice..

Sell now!!

Poised for Greatness : CRUS

Ultimate long term cup-with-handle.

Buy!

Brief Flirtation with History Proves too Much for GOOG

Kind of like Al Gore being president for a few seconds..

For a few hours, GOOG outshone AAPL and then, like a supernova..

What next? You're seeing the ^VIX break out - expect the spectacular - massive fireworks pretty soon. You should not enter any new positions for the next few months unless you know exactly what you're doing - which I certainly don't :)

Plenty of money on the sidelines is the way to play this..

Watch the ^VIX

When the VIX starts to level off, you know you have a local top in the market - SELL! before the selling starts in earnest..

Correction to Continue

It's technical - if you just look at the 5 year plot, you'll see where the support is and where things will retrace to..

Skin in the Game

Okay, what did I do and what happened?

First, I'm wrong on PCLN - go ahead and buy :) It doesn't care about the market anymore :) I sold prematurely.

I unloaded a chunk of DLG.F, but, if I hadn't, I'd be about $4k poorer today. Once it stabilizes at it's MA on the 5 year chart, you should be okay with owning it. NOTE, I still have a big chunk that's netted me some losses, but...

Strategy, For Now

Since the VIX has fallen to a low, that indicates a market top.

Wait for the VIX to get back to a healthy level to signal a short-term bottom so you can get in..

Don't Worry. Not the Bottom Yet

If there's one thing I learnt from Vision Investing's "Profit Forecasting Code" of 2003, a top in the VIX coincides with a market bottom - so, just wait :)

My buddy says a text of the S&P 1820 seem sure..

Unloading Starts in Earnest

When you see BRK-B taking a bigger hit than the broader market, that's a sure sign mate!

Of course, options expiration could have something to do with it too..

Anyhow, I saw a very bullish return for the indexes - so that's a worrying sign.

Of course, having gotten so close to the all-time high, you can pretty much bet that the Nasdaq will get there in the next few weeks. Just a q of when.

Ackman's All-Star Picks

Forget HLF - he made big bucks on that one. But, considering how low profile the other holdings are, maybe one should take a look at buying into the dips on those..

AGN, ZTS, APD, PAH,

Watch the SHAK!

Shake Shack - up on a market down (heavy down) day!

Also look at VPCO - been bucking the trend as well..

Bottom Fishing - the Worst Trading Strategy

And I fell for it again - net - loss of $20..

Followed the chart for a couple of hours, thought 126.6 was as low as it would go, and boy was I wrong - went all the way down to 126.2 or so - so it could have been worse..

Never, never again :)

Ist Das der Toppe? Ja, APPL Muss zu $80 Retracen

The top it is - back in 2012, stock made a new high, but relative strength did not - and, guess what, went on to lose 40%. Back then there was talk of Apple TV and $1 trillion market cap.

Now, we see another new high, but RS doesn't make a new high. And, there's again talk of $1T and Apple Car.

So, keep your powder and then you should be able to get back in at $80.

AAPL : Ominous Signs

Forget trading - if I'd just bought AAPL at 400 2 years ago and held on, I'd doubled my investment.. Hell :)

Now, some parallels to what happened then to drop the stock from 700 to 400 :

Then : Apple's doing great; they might announce the Apple TV soon.
Now : Apple's doing great; they might announce a car soon.

Then : Apple might get to $1 trillion in market cap.
Now : Apple might get to $1 trillion in market cap.

Red Flag Again

I was telling people that the market might decline after the new year since people would take profits in the hope of buying back lower, or just to lock in profits and not have to think about tax implications for a bit.

So it proved.

Now, Ari Wald is saying AAPL can get to 140 - das ist eine grosse red flag. You hear me? Sell..

Free IBD Stuff This Week at Investors.com

Thank you Amy Smith for getting rid of the ridiculously boring and crappy sounding Christina Wise. She tries to take a leaf out of the Brits' book..

Now, IBD is up to its usual gimmicks - trying to guess what the market is doing. "Uptred Under Pressure".

What are they not telling you?

When was the last time we saw such a formation? And, when we last saw such formations, what did you say? Did you say the same thing you're saying now? When you said the same thing you're saying now, last time, what happened? Duh!

The End of the Bull Run : William J. O'Neill

How do you know if the market is going south?

Just look at your recent purchases - if you haven't made even a dime - that's a sign.

It was so good the last few months, easy money and I've given so much back in just the last 2 weeks. Phew - I'm into RYVNX now!

Suckered by Icahn for a $50 Profit

Lunch money. I can't complain - but, I was right, when I said a couple days ago that the smart money was moving in.. Now, do you wish you'd gotten in at $400 :) ?

Why's AAPL Screaming Now?

Considering there's no hype and the stock is taking off, it must be the smart money moving in.

Any clues?

Just In - Christina Wise Retains Crown

as the most irritating voice ever on market wrap video vo.

Now, IBD's committed themselves - I don't know when exactly they did it - market in correction!

I committed on Friday - pulled into cash in my 401k. Good work comrades?

Know any good Russian hedge funds? Hedge funds are projected to grow big - because Americans are tired of non-living property boundary markers - fences and walls. Better to have something that lives and needs taking care of - which will also boost the economy with jobs and help out with the global warming problem. The Russians saw this coming before the Americans did and not they will capitalize on the capitalists.

Here's Your Mini Crash

Climactic action like this signals a change in direction - this is only the formation of the left shoulder. There will be an uptrend after this crash in a couple months. The real, big peak will only happen about 6 months down the road. Better sell out then :) But, what's driving this - is it all technical? There's no subprime crisis this time..

OMG WTF?

Facebook and LinkedIn.. What's going on? I thought I'd missed out. Now I'm looking at another big correction. Seems like big layoffs coming everywhere. Maybe I'll get to work on those Make projects for an extended period of time again.

What's Going On?

AAPL seems to be the only stock really hurting right now. Makes you think about what Bill O'Neil says about leaders and laggards..

Start Getting Ready

If you know what to short, good for you. If not, CTSH might be a good long buy. I got out of XOM in time, but looking to get back - XOM's a retirement fund:)

Why You Should Not Buy the Samsung EPIC 4G Phone from Sprint

1) After searching, I could not find a way to capture Audio. With my Moto W490, it was 2 menus and about 5 button presses in all, and I thought THAT one was a crappy phone

2) I don't know how to terminate an application. There doesn't seem to be a way.

3) This whole idea of a gmail phone is a bit risky. On gmail, you enter a strong password each time. But, with your phone, once you've set your account up, anyone can get into your gmail if they know the 4 digit pin to unlock your phone. Nuts!

4) You send 2 emails each time you send one from your phone. Go figure. Obviously the geniuses at Google don't work in the marketing department.

5) I could not find a way to use the "Call phone" feature that gmail has. Obviously, the geniuses at Google don't work in the marketing department. If the phone is being marketed as a gmail phone or a google phone, you'd expect them to delight the customer with this thing up and ready. Go figure.

6) I cannot select text (like a phone number) in the Email application or the gmail app.

7) When using the gmail app, you don't get email address completion - which is ridiculous - on the PC, if you're using gmail, that's one of the best things about it. WTF? Really? WTF are they trying to prove to the world?

8) In the mail application, the delete button doesn't delete the email. Go figure. Should you make your stuff intuitively easy to use or what?

9) Sprint cannot import your contacts from your SIM card you used with an older phone.

10) After umpteen attempts, this phone has failed to pair with my Plantronics 233 bluetooth headset. With my Moto W490, it takes about 5 seconds. Also, the EPIC SPH-D700 doesn't find my Moto when looking for devices. It looks like it can only pair with Sprint devices. WTF?

11) It's not clear how to sign out of the email. I've got gmail and Email running and now, each one has an orgasm when a new email arrives.

12) With the gmail app, you can't zoom in. You can with the Email app though.

13) The phone is delivered to you (if you're as unlucky as me) with the USB Debugging enabled. Somehow, this doesn't prevent Linux from accessing the SD card. But, Windows has no clue what to do unless you put on your geek had and go into Notifications and turn USB Debugging off, so that, next time you plug in the cable, you can select the Mass Storage option.

14) There is no way to rightclick. With the advanced technology available, you'd expect they'd have figured out a way (like Apple) to use multitouch to implement this, but no. In fact, it seems like multitouch only applies to zooming.

15) Blogspot does not work cleanly. I could not tap in the post area and start entering text. It was terrible.

Go iPhone guys! Go iPhone!

Possibles : Cyberonics (CYBX) and Hasbro (HAS)

Insider buying and technical action.

Up and Down and Up and Down

There's both strong support and strong resistance, but I think there's a strong overall upward bias. What I can tell you is that there's money to be made in the market trading. I just wish I was smart enough to be able to do it.

Anatomy

Small upside, massive downside, that's my experience in the market. Why? Because I'm a dumb trader. Consider :



I enter the bearish position at the X. Why? I've already forgotten (inability to learn from mistakes). I recall having a chance to get out of the trade within 5 minutes with a small profit. I pass. Then, at the ? mark, I have another change for a small profit and pass again - thinking the upside is now huge as the chart looks very bearish. Then, you can see a huge rally - which took my losses into the $100+ region. I decide it's pointless to get out now because it would amount to buying the top. Plus, it looks like a climax top. I end up holding this position overnight. As you'll see, I eventually did get out a nominal profit. This gives you an idea of how crappy a trader I am.

ETFs, not Stocks for Your Covered Calls

That's the tip of the day from Mr. SR who makes a tonne of cash in the market every day. When you buy ETFs, the volatility is much lower, so you're safer.

My information from the morning is that people think we're at the start of a new bull run. Hmmm... I think we will see more upside because there's some catching up to do to the 200 day MA's but after that, we'll definitely retrace atleast to the old lows.

Will we ever see 5.87 on GE again? SR - No. Me - don't be so sure. When a stock like that tanks, how do you know what the support is? We know what resistance is, but a support hasn't been established yet. We're probably going into a sideways market for a few months. But, in time, you'll see another downtrend and we'll test the support level.

I can only kick myself when I pull charts up - RFMD - sold at 0.75!

Flying Colours

Well, you can't ask for more. The market delivered today. But it has some way to go. I was happy with 69XX, but 67XX was a bonus. Now, how long must we wait for the near-term bottom? If you play your cards right, you can take a 15% gain (or double with margin) on your money if you call the bottom right. 6000 can go to 7000 in a sucker rally the way 7500 went to 9000 before the new downtrend started. Watch for it.

You DOW the Math

The all time high on the DOW was 14015.

Once it established a downtrend, it sank down to 12796. After a rally, it headed south again, rebounding off 11635 - down 9%.

Then, it established a support at 11732 before putting together another rebound. Once that gave in, the new low was 10828 - 7.7% off the previous support.

Then, without setting a new support level, it rallied a bit and then collapsed all the way down to 7883 - 27.2% off the previous low!!

Then, it set a new support level of 7449 before launching another rally. Considering we're already down 8%, and have taken out crucial support levels from 10 years ago, we're probably looking at a 20% drop from 7449. So 6k it is. Childishly simple.

That's More Like It

Another sacred day. But, what's this about the US T-Note bubble? I know one guy who made a bomb buying puts on oil has shorted the US T-Note. But, did you also know that looking at the price trend of the T-Note is very hard? Try it and let me know.

What should you buy? MGEE - utility company, that, I believe, serves mostly residents in Wisconsin. See how well the support has held up. You can't go wrong here. Or so I think. Have I? Not yet.

But we still have a ways to go. We need BRK-A to crack 50k and BRK-B to crack 2k. That's just the beginning for the buying to start again.

6971 was the 1997 low that people were eyeing. We've achieved that. Next is 6356. Let's hope we don't have to wait too long. That's it for 97. 96 has 6236 waiting in the wings. Why do I want to go low? Because things have to get worse before they get better and it's better that we get the worst out of the way instead of dragging things out.

Still Disappointing

After looking at today's market action, my response is, come on, you can do better! We need to break into the 6000's, sooner the better. What people don't realize is that we need for the worst to be over sooner rather than later. Let's sell off really hard right now, then we can all get back in with the confidence that our investment will grow, and all will be well.

Only AMGN and XOM are doing anything worthwhile. Does MSFT have the potential to dip below $100b market cap? Hmm...

One Depression Per Century

A house divided against itself cannot stand. Neither can one that spends more than it earns. I've heard the sentence "this is the day that the Lord hath made" long ago. Today is a sacred day, probably the dawn of a new realization that, perhaps, we are going to enter another depression era. Maybe there will be a new rabble-rouser who will find a class of scapegoats, and maybe in the nation with the world's most powerful military. Perhaps this dictator will reason that his nation needs vast open spaces for new inhabitation - lebensraum. Maybe there will be a coalition of other nations that will arise to defeat him. And then, another economic miracle. Who knows for sure? Maybe the most important thing is to establish a population on Mars so that, in the event of a nuclear holocaust on earth, we're not all wiped out. A new space race, that's what we need for a new economic miracle. Ja?

100% Cash

Not entirely 100% because I have literally a couple here and there, but I'm pretty much out, ready to sit this one out. Now, a smarter risk taker would short the right ones. But that's not me. Unfortunately. Finally, after a big down day, IBD says move to cash. What's the use of being a pro outfit if you can't tell your customers ahead of time?

I admire RBS who told their customers to move to cash last year. Sure, they're worthless now, but atleast they put their customers' interests first.

When BRK-A Doesn't Work

Did you watch the CNN Money interview with the author of Dr. Mr. B? You see Buffet flanked by huge burly minders whispering into their comm gadgets. So much for the image of a grandfatherly old sort who only invests in stuff he understands. And, people pay $100k and upto 2m to have lunch with him, bidding on Ebay.

Can BRK-A get to 74k again? You bet. Where will it settle? Considering nothing is immune to a depression, I think it should shed 80% of its peak value just like everything else. We know that BRK is a laggard, not a leader. So it'll be slower to decline than other tickers, but it'll get to about 30k eventually before people will buy again at the start of the next uptrend. Is it worth more? That's a pointless question. What something is worth is based on which way its value is going to move. And value is based on what people are going to pay for it in the future.

New Year Resolution

Every buy or sell I make will be accompanied by a picture showing where on the weekly chart I made the trade. God forbid I will make so many that I won't have time enough to honour this.

Seller's Remorse, At Last:)

Looks like we're in for a strong uptrend - the very day I move into money market too:) Let's see.

Prediction - Fireworks Again

Assuming we are going into a lengthy recession - and most indices have reached their MA's again, we should see some nasty downward action starting soon. If not now, then in about a month once they bounce off their 200-day MA's. Sorry.

Try 7000, Or Six!

How about that - just when we thought we couldn't go any lower - we notch up a new low. And did you ever think MSFT could stare at 17? Terrific stuff. Alwadi buying more C i t i is another sign to sell. It's just a move to get him more control. In a year, once his stake has broken even, you can bet he'll jump ship. Just like a Saudi oil-pirate.

Consider, I've lost a tonne in ISRG on account of holding from the 300 days, I pull out at about 200, get back in and out with a small scalp, and now, I stare at 100. How about that? This is a wipeout crash, not a correction. Make no mistake. I'm going in for a career as a personal trainer once I get laid off. Or maybe a relaxation therapist. My fascination is with the mind, and brain.

BTW, when the downturn was starting, one of my colleagues, seeing GOOG down from its heyday of 700+, said he was expecting GOOG to come down to about 500 before it was time to buy. Try 250 mate!! This was a Korean pap by the way.

How about MT dropping from about 100+ to 15. Did Lakshmi think he'd lose 85% of his worth in a few months? Amazing stuff.

Being a semis man, I say consolidation beckons. It's irresistable. A lot of blue-chips have violated some sacred supports. When it become M&A time, that's something to watch out for in a couple years. Firms going belly-up will want to merge with stronger competitors.

And how about BRK-B down to 2620!! That one just cracks me up. I can still see Buffet's genial old look beside the proclamation that he wouldst buy US stocks. And the poor co-worker who scoffed at my suggestion to sell his holding at 5000. Well, all this is nothing new. I will quote Baruch again : "I never lost money taking a prophet."

The bright side, my buddy who has sellers-remorse over MA gets a chance to buy back - but it'll probably be a bad buy by that time - credit will not be a hot market probably. We'll be on the barter system. Work for me, I'll give you lunch and dinner. And if you're really good, maybe a blanket.

And what about BRK-A cracking 80k? It just gets better and better! Think about it - what sort of people have the money to buy that beast? Now, those are the sort of people that are panicking and selling. So much for Buffet's safe bets that will stand the test of time. Without technical analysis, you are nothing in this market dominated by traders. Anything in the world that can be bought and sold on a dime and whose absolute value is dictated solely by what buyers are willing to pay and wheter buyers outnumber sellers requires the tools of technical analysis. Ignore them and see what you get. Wise up buffet!

Seeing FAIRX beaten down, and being a mutual fund, I was thinking of getting in - and that was when it was still at 21! See, Zecco's crappy slow-loading page can have benefits!

And the other prediction realized - DELL cracks $10 to become a PENNY STOCK!

Am I afraid? Yes, if AMD goes out of business, then INTC has a true monopoly. What happens to us little people then? Ooops! And more oops - Motely Fools says "3 Reasons to buy AMD now". That means SELL!! Damn!! That's one big embarrassment.

And what about the *d from IBD who, a few weeks ago claimed - hold on, you've proved you're not a good analyst by failing to call the top, why do you think you're doing the right thing now by selling. I nominate him for the ultimate online *d award. What a freak!

Think about it, IBD should have guessed the top by themselves. Bill O'Neill's rule it to watch for old dogs starting to bark. And when did WMT hit its all-time high?

And if you thought GE was cheap at 14, you've got to think again. Damn, I was thinking of taking a HUGE position at 18 when it made its all-time low for the first-time. This is massive ladies in herren. Did you ever think this behemoth could be a penny-stock? Think again!

Watch out for Grand Canyon. Follow the IBD rule of letting it build a base.

As for me, now sellers remorse over VWO - I pulled out at 26 (Shame for not getting out at 39) and saw it dip to 19 and then rise back to 25, now it's back to 18. But, this is probably not a safe one for a couple of years. They may even have to close this fund down.

This is history. Savour it, and profit from it.

Another Bitter Pill

but you knew it was coming. We're not done with this bear market. Not for a while. But, technically, it could still be an excellent time to buy in a few days - to sell within another couple days of course.

GOOG 280 - did you ever think you'd see that again?
And sorry, but this one I simply can't resist - BRK/B 2783. How about that for a spectacular fall. I can still picture in my mind Buffet's idiotic simper juxtaposed with the headline claiming he was buying US stocks. What a loser. But, technically, this is a good one to buy - but get ready to sell within a couple days.
This _is_ a full-fledged crash - just as RBS predicted. If you haven't gotten your money out, think about it very seriously - you'll get a chance within a couple of weeks. Pull out and wait it out.
VIP 7.53 - managed to pull out at 15+. But, kick me, I could have quit at 45!
And what about BRK/A 84k - I never thought I'd see that again. It's actually looking delicious now - forget a house, I'll go for this right now. You can pull out in a couple of weeks with a handsome profit I should think. How about one year's college tuition?

No one has been spared. Did you ever think MSFT could shave off 50%. Given it's historically strong support at 21, did you ever think you could see 18? This is history. Get ready to buy in a few months, we should be rewarded very handsomely.

And of course, IBD helps big guys squeeze us as usual by drawing it out - a false "rally" call, then a rally-under-pressure, finally, when it's time to start buying, mkt-in-correction. *ds!

What really bugs me - why the hell don't they talk about where the support is - there is no support anywhere near the Nasdaq. As far as I can see, it's headed all the way back to the low it set after the bust. In that case, people aren't going to buy until the see that level - and feel things can only get better from that point on. Childishly simple.

History - Low Oil, Low Google

Usually oil goes up to push stocks down. I'm happy I pulled out of most positions. My IRA is still bleeding though. If I hadn't sold...

LVS - at 100+ - now staring bankruptcy.

Remember Baruch's words "I never lost money taking a profit."

What cracks me is how IBD again went through the second guessing game. After the 900 pt rally of a couple weeks ago, they change their tune, and now, at a near term bottom, they shout "Mkt in Correction" again. This time, if ppl had listend to me, they'd be okay.

Did you ever think you'd see GOOG trade below 300 again? Nice?

Heed the Warning Signs

Market is giving up a lot in the last one hour. That means we're nearing the near-term top. Get out while you're ahead (if:)

It's For Real

Okay, if you play your cards right, you could easily see a 30% return on your money over the next 3-4 months. But, don't be greedy and be prepared to bail in time. Once the near term correction sets in, the next set of leaders will be in the handle formation. Watch for those!

THOR - Strength in a Weak Mkt

What gives? And why isn't anyone screaming about this one?

And what about NTES? Someone seems to know something about this one - it could really take off.

BWLD looks good. So does NEOG.

Now Get Ready

Alright, it's here - IBD's changed their tune to confirmed rally. Now, you need to act fast. I doubt very much we'll see a really strong rally, but I could be wrong. It's so hard to stick with one decision:) Now that I've pulled out, it's anyone's guess which I way I want it to go:) Actually, I do have a few positions still left. MT might have been premature - that was a big loss. But, let's see what happens.

Fanning the Flames

After I bolted, I put in an order to buy 2k VWO at 21:) The hardest part is to stick with your decision after you've made it.

It does look bad - consider, DELL will soon be a penny stock.

Catharsis

Alright folks, I'm out:) I was hoping for a strong rally till we got to the 200 day MA, but looks like that's a dream. I think one rule that applies is - sell when you get such an email from your financial advisor (even if you don't pay him):

About three weeks have passed since I last wrote to you about the economic turmoil affecting world markets. In that time, U.S. and worldwide stock markets have continued to gyrate and go down. We recognize that many of you have concerns and questions about how to respond to these events. Here are some important points to keep in mind.


We expect markets to recover. Of course, we don't know how soon, or how long it will take to make up for the recent losses. But markets are very resilient. The U.S. stock market has weathered a number of extreme events in our history—a Great Depression, world wars, oil embargos, and market crashes big and small. And despite these setbacks, the market has continued to grow over time.

This means that a broadly diversified portfolio is as important as ever—the kind of portfolio Financial Engines recommends through the Personal Online Advisor service. Just as market declines can happen in a single day or week, rebounds can be equally sudden and unpredictable. Missing those days by having your money out of the stock market can be very costly in the long run. Your best opportunity for success is keeping to a consistent investment strategy, not trying to time the ups and downs of the market.


end_quote.

That's the key - when he tells you that you might miss out on a big up day - is the time to run:)

Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell

In a few weeks. With most big name stocks struggling to catch up to their 200 day MAs, we don't even have a right to be in the market.

And, once the next uptrend starts, don't fish at the bottom - look for new leaders - not past leaders that are beaten down.

And yes, please cut your losses.

When to Sell

Simple - watch IBD - and, when they yell Market in Confirmed Rally, get your stops in order. They're making a big deal out of the bounce coming in lighter volume than the previous day. They define a follow-through day as a 2+% advance in volume higher than the previous day. Problem is - the big players have realized that that's what people are looking for - so the game has changed - that's when they get ready to sell. At uncertain times like this, you have to view the market as a big poker game. Or musical chairs. Stay ahead of the pack and don't try to squeeze the last nickel out of the rally. One thing you can be sure of - we haven't seen the bottom - and there will be another huge downturn in a few weeks. Why? Simple - there were smart people who waited for the crash and got in at the bottom. After that, it's psychology - do you think they will hold on forever and take risk or be satisfied with a decent gain? Also, people who got burned will wait until there is a true bull-market.

Buy - Blue Chips Only

You can bet those will keep moving up for a couple of weeks. But, get ready to sell soon after that. There'll be a really downturn in a couple months. Remember, the biggest up days on the NASDAQ were during the dot-com bust bear-market.

Iceland Must Pay

I'm not that dumb after all. I had made a mental note to ditch EZPW - the one holding that was actually in the black. Couple of days later, I look and see it's down about 4 points and I disapprove of myself again. I login yesterday and see that I actually got out at 15, and it's now at 11 - so I get back in. And this is one stock that actually seems to be going somewhere.

And oh, what about BRK-B, I held 8 shares at one time. Let go at 4100 and watched to soar all the way to 47, but I knew what was coming:) Ooph! And what about CHK? If I hadn't gotten out at 49? I could have watched it drop all the way to 15.

You're getting what you wanted now - get ready to sell out completely in about 3 months. And, you can get back in about 4 months after that.

A mistake I keep repeating - looking for gains from climaxing stocks - if a stock is off it's high, it's not necessarily a good buy - no matter how good the fundamentals look. Look at the chart on different scales - see if it's climaxing. If you want to buy - when the stock is in an uptrend, get in once it builds a base, and set a firm stop loss.

Sixth Triple-Digit Loss in a Row

Iceland is bankrupt - they borrowed heavily from abroad to invest in banking assets. Those assets are essentially worthless now. Iceland was a big hedge fund.

Russia is hoping to get the US base in Iceland and get a foothold in the Atlantic. That's probably what we need - another cold war - so that we can get the defense industry moving again and get the economy going.

Bad Behaviour

Got out of WFR two days ago deciding to "keep what's left" and got back in today wanting to not-miss-out on a rally. I haven't done this in years. This should clue you. My emotions are starting to pick up. I've said the big players won't get back in until the little people really sell - so they can buy at rock bottom - and, the next day, stocks will open so high that the little people would have missed out anyway. Anyhow, I've decided to pull out completely. Oct is a free trade month on Zecco - so I can get out without commissions - got to make the most of it.

What's different about what's going on now versus just bad stock pics? In the case of the latter, you probably didn't anticipate a competitor that would put your company out of business, or you didn't anticipate a sector downturn because a particular technology went out of vogue - or something specific like that. What should have clued people here was the big names folding - Bear Stearns was the big one. That actually was warning enough. What is going on IS different - we've seen 150 year-old institutions like LEH give up. MER doesn't exist. Morgan Stanley is finished. This is as different as it gets.

And why is the economy going to be bad - it's because a good economy is where there is healthy consumer spending. Except, in this case, the spending is over. People (like me) spent money when it was easy to come buy - and that led to more houses being built. So, the houses are the assets that exist. For the next 5 years, there won't be any spending because the spending is over. In my case, though I didn't acquire tonnes of assets, I was lax over the last year - averaging down on bad buys - based on the value of my portfolio. I thought I was rich based on what people were willing to give me for what I had at a certain point in time. That's not a good standard. There is no standard - even if you own gold, what you can get with that gold can decline as time passes.

I honestly don't know what the answer is. One lesson I plan to take very seriously from now on is that trendline violations are very serious. Don't think you're getting a bargain. You think you're getting a good deal, but you could be in for a shock. If a stock is in a healthy uptrend, think about buying into dips - and setting very tight stops.

Near-Term Bottom?

Going by my behaviour, I would say so. Though I did buy some, I sold WFR which I've held for a long time. It's clear I've been investing on instinct and gut feeling rather than rules. I've watched that stock top out at 90+ and see it stare 20! Ridiculous. Now I'm hoping it keeps its downward journey:) But, my fear is starting to up on a daily basis now. And I'm not even margined.

Stick it Out

That's my advice. If you're not in the market, think about getting in. It's a tough time, but the institutions won't start buying until the little people lose heart and sell - that's when they get stuff cheap. If we keep up the rate of decline we've seen, the whole world should cost a dollar in a few months.

But, having bought, get ready to sell in a couple weeks - we need to bounce off the bottom a few times before we're ready to move up.

Of note - GOOG and AAPL explore levels they haven't seen in a while - GOOG back in the 300's and AAPL below 100.

My big embarrassments :

WB - who would guess that this stock, when it saw trouble, would offer traders the chance for almost 1000% in profit with smart trading?
SIMO - got in around 25, it's at 4! This seems like 2000 doesn't it?

And the ones I'm lucky I sold:

TS : got out around 63 - it's at 32. If it was a few bad picks, we could be faulted - but, at this time, it's every stock in the world that's searching for the bottom. And we haven't seen the bottom yet - forget it - not until MSFT hits 21 around mid next year are going to see the bottom.
WDC - got out around 37, it's at 20 now.

Once the new short-term rally starts - in a few hours - ensure you have really tight stops - so that you get out when the trend reverses - as you know, the stock market is just a game or musical chairs or poker - when it's dominated by traders.

I would suggest a good, hard look at GE. Don't expect stellar returns, but you might easily see 50% in a year.

And, has anyone wondered why WMT has done so well when the rest of the market has been heading south?

And what about TXN - test resistance at 35 three times and finally broke through last year and look at the sordid footprint after that. Goes to prove Curran right - eternal vigilance is the price of freedom.

To predict the future of the market, look at your own behaviour - if you buy items that you don't really need because your portfolio is looking good, then you can be sure that there is an uptrend in progress that is not tenable. That's really the time to get out - and see your money lose value anyway because of inflation:)

The Spectacular Fall

And rise, and fall, and rise, and fall

of WB.

You could have made 50% on your investment twice in about a month - and each time, you would have had to act to protect your profit. And what about RIMM? We aren't done yet. I feel pretty confident that MSFT will retreat to its strong support at 21 before we see the next bull market. Until then, everything anyone says is bull.

Is the Worst Yet to Come?

Watch the fireworks that follow when MSFT bounces off its 200 day moving average. Just watch! This should happen in about 2 weeks or less.

How to Operate the Market

1) Be president.
2) Screw up the economy.
3) Let bellweathers like LEH and BAC decline and threaten to go out of business and let their stocks hit rock-bottom.
4) Get phone calls from big money managers saying they've entered into positions in those stocks and that the coast is now clear.
5) Announce a plan that will have the effect of getting those stocks to open at prices which mean no one else can now think of getting into them.

The Bigger They Come

It's not time to buy yet - if you look in the past - with this sort of panic-stricken selling - you want to wait for a really serious dip - like to 9000 or 8000 before you get in - that's what you see when you look around 9/11 time.

But how about this - IBD changing its tune to "market in confirmed rally" is again a good time to sell. Pathetic fools. Aprende!

Possibles

QGEN (Dutch outfit). Buy above $24 and have a tight stop to prevent losses. IBD says buy 10c above the previous high.

ADM - Are they really down and out? This got a boost from some biofuel boom talk. But it's shed 50% almost.

AFAM - overextended.

AGU! Still hasn't violated a trend line.

How to Know When

it's time to get out? I remember O'Neil's advice - take a look at your recent purchases. If you haven't made even a dime, it should tell you something. I've felt that way for more than a year now.

I did get in and out of BRK/B though - at a prophet. I'm actually eyeing BRK/A:) Question I have is - has Buffet thrown in the towel? Why doesn't he give is a look at who's going to take over? With they crumble?

Surprise Surprise

Who would guess stalwarts like KWK would tank like this?

Other notables - GRMN, CHK, XOM (seems like a good buy now), PCU??

And how about AMGN for a comeback!

And the recent declines right after IBD says "c rally". What a surprise:)

Watch : SXE - use tight stops.
NGS? V? CALM,

Some I got out of in time: WDC, PCU, KWK, NGS, AGU.

What to Make of it

Those watching IBD know they changed their tune today. And I was saying that would be the time to get the stops out. Let your profits run but what happens - the run up turns into a bubble, it gathers momentum, climaxes and then stocks reverse. The day that happens, you don't feel like selling the next day because stocks usually start the next day down. So, my new rule is to protect profit rather than capital. This makes sure you get out while you're ahead. Protecting capital makes sure you don't suffer a loss. That's not good enough for us.

So, get ready to move off the sidelines, but be ready to sell when the tide turns as it inevitably will.

When to Sell

or put in stop loss orders. How about when IBD changes its tune to "Mkt in Confirmed Rally"? That would make sense to me.

Double or Nothing

Saw how Wachovia went from about 9 to 18 in about a week? You could never get that with a healthy company with solid results growth - just not possible. The lesson - for the well-trained and disciplined trader, there are super profits available for the taking.

Those Who Cannot Remember History

What's going on in the market right now has been seen countless times before. What gets to me is Yahoo's collusion is screwing the little people - stacking up all the negative news and then, once the sense the rally, filling their page with feel-good stories.

Holding Fast

to my favourites. It has been scary of late I won't deny. I'm content to think my net worth is in a certain ballpark and I have most of it invested in stocks and therefore I should have a well-funded retirement. Let's see. We're starting to see the downward climactic action that usually signals a new rally is on its way :

PCLN, RIMM
MT, AGU, MA, V, FSLR

V looks set to be a stellar performer in the short term - judging by its relative strength.

That aside, it's recently struck me how unlike the brochure life really is. After all these years on the job, I find I still have so much left to learn. Sure, I could fall into one sort of rut, ignore the politics and the BS and enjoy a sinecure, but folks like me want to do stuff. Make sense?

Another Bitter Pill

But look at the way some of them have held up - (not RIMM:)

RIO, PCU, MT

Possibilities

GBN could be one to think of - micro-cap, technically good. But, gold's going to cool off soon?

MT, RIMM, PCLN all look good - these were some that I got out of in time actually - need to get back in.

What's my strategy to cope with losses from the likes of WB? Simple - if holding for the long term, have your cake and eat it - buy BAC and then - after you buy, maybe the next day, sell WB and claim the loss. This way, no one can have any complaints. Of course, you're taking higher risk on that one day. No question about that.

Brute Strength

MT, RIMM, PCLN, CLB. Catch em young.

Back on the Sidelines

Hmmm.. moved out of a lot of positions yesterday and - see what happened today. All technical. Surprisingly, most of my sales are holding up pretty well. RIMM was the only one that makes me look good for selling:)

AGCO is one stock that's been riding it's 200 day really well. Also consider VIP. There's tonnes of stocks that are looking good - but don't be like me and try to own everything. You probably want to pass up the oldies like GOOG and AAPL - you might double your money if you're lucky - but how much can market cap increase from 150b? You're better off with the hotties - solar, natural gas, etc. Berkshire is looking really good BTW - from a technical standpoint. I wonder what happens to that stock when Buffet pops it.

Why Technicals?

It depends on the market you're playing. The US stock market is dominated by traders, not investors. Even a trader is an investor. That explains that a good company will be sold by those traders that have a profit. That will send the stock down. Also, if too many investors get onto a good company, there are no investors left who want to buy and the price has to be lowered to entice buyers - also leads to a pullback. So, you better have your basics right.

Looks Good, Early Days Yet

Plenty of stuff getting ready to take off. Do some research on technicals - so you know when to sell out with a small loss. RIMM, ADBE, ITU, MA, PCU, PBR are all looking good. ICLR might also be a good one. Some might not be safe to get into now though.

Hit Them Now

They're up, but that's the time to buy - don't feel like you've already missed out.

PCU, RIO, PBR, MT,..

Short term pullbacks on profit-taking are inevitable.

Punk from Stock Traders Press was bugging me lately. Told him I didn't have any cash on the sidelines and he says "the way the markets going right now, I'll bet there are some stocks that aren't working out for you."

My question, if you're so good at picking stocks, why don't you just make yourself rich instead of bugging people for their membership. Upgrade your member-boat to a member-ship.

GROW - The Importance of Cutting Losses

Who would have guessed:)

Got in somewhere in the low twenties. Damn!! Who would expect it of a company that's in the business of looking at other companies and picking out the good ones? But, look at BSC, or MER. Same story, more blood.

LIFC, die Spaetest Sieger

It's hard to know when to sell - unless someone makes the decision for you. Lifecell is going for $1.2b in cash. Actually picked up a few shares a few weeks back. Definitely a good market again, but... keep moving them stops up!

One thing to consider - the general market is below its 200 day MA - so I think we'll be going sideways for a while.

What Have I Learned?

If anything - once the market is in a strong uptrend and everything you touch seems to make you money - put in stops - 10% is a reasonable stop because, once the trend turns, I usually find myself holding stuff that's down 30% or more. No kidding. Yes, this means you could get hit hard in commissions if you have a lot of positions, so that's something to taking into account.

Predictions Realized

IBD second guesses as usual. Went from "confirmed" rally to correction in a matter of days. What's the use of all the seminars and courses if that's all they're good for?

ADM, POT, MON are looking good. Keep an eye on the hard hit stocks too - BRCM, etc. ESRX is worth watching. DRS, HLF also looking good.

BTW, they say the typical bear market lasts 1 year - so, in a few months:) start looking to buy.

AAPL was up today, btw.

What About That?

JOYG - up on a really down day. Looks like this one will be big.
BKE also doing well, but, buying breakout during a correction is risky. As I've been saving to pay uncle sam in April, I haven't been buying much recently. But, I'm getting tempted. The worst thing that could happen is we become a Japan - where after 20 years, stocks are still 25% down. Those things don't happen in Texas though.

SU is looking good. Not sure whether IBD have changed their tune or not. Am seriously thinking of recycling my WB holding into BAC and getting the tax break. Any thoughts on the "substantially similar" rule? I don't think IRS can have a complaint. Nofsinger was the one who gave me this idea in "The Psycho of Investing".

Crystal Ball

What I see happening - considering that IBD's changed it's tune just after 3 strong days, I guess we can expect a near term correction - about 5-6% easily, in a couple of weeks. Basically, we're going to keep moving sideways for a couple of years atleast. Institutional buying will keep moving new leaders up, but you want to protect your capital always.

Taking off. Catch it Before it's Too Late

CHK

Time.. .. Maybe?

To start getting ready to move out of cash? Wait for a dip, and then get it. IBD still has an "in correction" outlook. MO and HON are out of the Dow Feb 19. BAC and Chevron will get in.

Watch NEU - super strength - why do they wait so long to tell us? Mutual fund ownership has been stagnant though.

90% of winning stocks build their bases during a market correction.
CRM is riding it's 200 day.
What else I've noticed - solar is starting to ride it's 200 day. Just look at JASO, FSLR and STP.
And how about KWK! It's off already. Got my J2T account in the black:) You need to get one of those - a zecco account that gives you 10 free trades a month, and a J2T account you use after that to get trades at 2.50 each. And, did I mention Scottrade is the best for mutual funds? If you plan to have only mutual funds in your IRA - go with ST - they have great research available and good charts too.

What Was That?

The worst drop in a year. That's what. If you had been watching important stocks approach their 50, 100 or 200 day averages, from the bottom, you would not have been one bit surprised. There will be a somewhat biggish dip in the next couple days, and then we should move sideways for about 3 years.

Love your stock? Have spare money in your IRA or 401(k)? Then help yourself. Sell down positions in your regular brokerage and buy back in your tax-exempt accounts.

What's held up really well for me? SID. Wish I had PBR:(

Why TA is Important

Because the market today is dominated by institutional investors and TA helps you determine what they are doing.

IBD's Vote - QGEN and GMCR

Spot institutional selling before it spots you. Stock diving below 10-week in heavy volume should be enough to scare you. But, also, making new highs out of poorly formed bases.

What's Worthwhile

A lot of leaders have taken a massive drubbing. The thing about small cap is that you can expect to lose 50% in the blink of an eye. Just look at the wild rides FSLR and CMG have taken.

PTR,
CMG - buy at the 200 day moverage
PCU - after a few weeks, if it's above it's 200 day
RIO - when it hits 200 day
INTC - if you're a masochist
AMD - technical. The downward trend will continue, but I think there's a rebound imminent
ABT - biotech - but, don't expect much
ADBE - seem to double every 5 years - probably too slow for most of us
VIVO - at 200 day
CLB - at 200 day
WFR - now that's what I call a shakeout:) You'll see some serious declines. I remember buying some at 90. This will get to about 50, buy then. It'll net 5x in 5 years.
ESRX - whoops - get ready to sell this baby - probably no more buyers left
IBN
NVDA - classic technical
CVD - when it dips back to 200 day moverage
GRMN - buy, but expect dips - hold long term
RIMM - classic technical - buy at 200 day moverage
MA - buy at 200 day
IMA - you can't ask for a better one
ICLR - declines possible, but good long term bet
NGS - the long road to recovery from a climax top. Second buy point will be at 36.
STP - ready to rocket - buy at 200 day - a few weeks from now.
CMED - buy at 200 day

Note - this is what I plan to do. It's a good idea to keep atleast 2 years living expenses (and some leaving expenses:) handy if you plan to follow it. This is not for the faint-hearted.

LFC - looking very good - get at 200 day
CHL - 200 day
GOOG - 200 day. No stopping this baby
MT - buy, buy, buy
AAPL - at 200 day
HUM - at 200 day
SID - don't buy if it climaxes
BIDU - at 200 day
ISRG - a2d

Keep Them Eyes Open

LVS, AMD, MRVL all look good from an oversold point of view. But, I'm no expert.
PCU - maybe?
MER? A record low is usually a good buy point technically.
NVDA.
ABN.

Someone needs to keep track of the performance of the "record price breakouts" from clearstation!

GS is sure to hit 400 in a couple years. Seems like a safe bet too.
C looks like a nice idea, but don't expect the dividend to be so sweet.

Get Ready to Buy

EDU was up today. So also CTCM, ITG, PRSC, ATR
Too many down today to name. But, banks seem to be making record lows - so those will be good to watch - could become safe bets pretty soon.
CHK also good. Looks like I called the top on ALJ perfectly.
CME looks good according to me.
Look at JOYG!! Seems like an ideal buy point.
And KWK.

What's Looking Good?

MON, ADM, RIMM, GRMN, ..
HUM, NGS, ...

Nothing

Really, nothing.

My Mistake

I would have been easy for me to start IRAs as early as 2001. But I waited till 2005.

Monsanto - You Reap what You Sow

This could have been your home run stock.
Market was flat, this one kicked butt.
Others that did good today : FTI, STT, SYT, SPN
Down today : JTX, XTRX, SFLY, CVS, NCMI